Friday, February 10, 2012

When Will Israel Attack Iran?

                Major events between the Palestinians and Apartheid Israelis usually happen in a lame duck session of an outgoing US President, i.e. the time between the November election and the inaugural of a new President.   Should President Barack Obama lose his bid for a second term as US President in November of this year, recent history teaches us that something dramatic will happen in the Middle East.  There is a concern that during that time period Israel will strike Iran to preempt it from obtaining a nuclear facility capable of producing a nuclear bomb.

                The rhetoric coming out of the Apartheid Israeli government about the option to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities is at a high pitch tone.  While this saber rattling by Apartheid Israel is aimed to deflect its own atrocities against the Palestinians, it is hypocritical in that Israel has a history of opacity about its own nuclear reactor.   Nonetheless, Apartheid Israel is preparing the world public opinion for an attack against Iran. The question is not whether Apartheid Israel will attack Iran but rather when will it attack?

Apartheid Israel has a history of attacking Middle Eastern countries that are attempting to develop nuclear power.  On June 7, 1981, Apartheid Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor under construction 10.5 miles southeast of Baghdad, Iraq. On September 6, 2007, Apartheid Israel struck a nuclear reactor in the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria.  Syria denied that the nuclear reactor was designed for military purposes.   

The time between the outgoing and incoming US Presidents seems to be the timing when Israel will most likely attack Iran.  I say this because of several historical events which happened between these time frames.  
In 1980, the Iran Hostage Crisis did not end until the inauguration of President Ronald Reagan and the departure of President Jimmy Carter.  In 1988, secret events were undertaken by the United States to have the PLO recognize Israel during the time after the 1988 elections and the inaugural of President George Bush Sr.  In 2008, when President George W. Bush was leaving office and Americans elected Barack Obama as President-Elect, Apartheid Israel launched Operation Lead Cast against the Palestinians in Gaza.  The assault on Gaza did not end until two days before the inaugural of President Obama.
                These significant developments in the Middle East around a lame duck Presidency period leads me to conclude that should President Obama lose his bid for re-election in November, then it is highly likely that Apartheid Israel will attack Iran between the election and before the inaugural of the newly elected Republican.   If this happens, President Obama will not be in a position to do anything against Apartheid Israel that cannot be undone by an incoming President beholden to the Apartheid Israeli lobby.   Additionally, a President-Elect can then claim that what has been done by Israel is done and cannot then challenge Apartheid Israel but will instead have to deal with the fallout of the attack.
As noted above, Israel has had a history of vagueness about whether it has a nuclear reactor with enriched uranium capable of producing an atomic bomb.  It has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, neither has Pakistan or India though these countries are confirmed nuclear powers. Israel remains ambiguous about its nuclear capabilities.   
It is hypocritical for Israel to have a nuclear reactor, not be a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and then threaten to attack another country for trying to develop nuclear capability. It is believed that Apartheid Israel has between 75 to 400 nuclear weapons and has had them since 1967.

                While Iranian President  Mahmud Ahmadinejad has made statements calling for Israel’s destruction, it cannot be reasonable believed that he nor any Iranian leader will attack Apartheid Israel with a nuclear weapon.  Such an act would be contrary to the Muslim dogma of protecting the holy city of Jerusalem.  Any such attack will inevitable have a considerable fallout throughout the Middle East and will affect millions of Muslims including Iran itself.  Any such attack would be unrealistic from an offensive standpoint. 
Israel, on the other hand, is willing to take offensive measures against Iran as they have done so against Iraq and Syria.  While the fallout of the Iraq and Syria attacks was next to nothing, it may not be so with Iran.  Iran has one and a half more times the population of both Iraq and Syria.  Iran controls the Strait of Harmous of which 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.  Just the mere threat that the oil flow will be impeded by Iran has driven the price of a barrel of oil up. Having the oil supply actually interrupted will cause havoc with any already burdened world economy. 

Israel will attack Iran. The real question is whether anyone has the political will to stop Israel? 


  1. Hello Fadi, I see the timeline of the Israeli’s attack on Iran a little sooner. I think it might happen, soon after Netanyahu visits too the United States in March. An attack in late fall into early winter would greatly jeopardize the Northern Hemisphere’s home heating oil supply too much. In any case I hope we are both wrong and an attack of any kind does not happen. David Global Crier

  2. David, you may be right that Apartheid Israel will attack during a Presidential campaign. President Obama may be very reluctant to say or do anything of significance against Israel. Such a scenario will drive up the price of gas before the summer months when traditionally said price goes up anyway. This will ultimately cause undue hardship to Americans regardless of the timing but will give Obama the cover of then reluctantly blaming "events" in the Middle East rather than Israel outright. As I wrote, it is not whether Israel will attack, it is when. While I laid out a scenario that it will happen during a lame duck Presidency, I can see it happening as you have stated.

    I do hope that we are both wrong and I do hope that President Obama leads with conviction and stops Apartheid Israel from taking us down this track where the world will suffer the death of many soldiers and civilians on both sides and will suffer economically for years to come--at a time when we are already suffering.

    Apartheid Israel must be stopped from its reckless ways both in terms of its saber rattling and with its reckless apartheid practices in the West Bank. Iran would have no impetus to be hawkish against Apartheid Israel if there were no occupation of Palestinian land. That is the crux of the matter.